Novo Nordisk Wegovy pill launch and copycat pressure

JPMorgan analyst Richard Vosser said the bank’s view followed talks with management, who again highlighted the strong launch of the Wegovy tablet and said the upcoming September launch in Germany is showing encouraging signs. But the company still expects headwinds from copied versions of Ozempic beyond the US, a challenge that could blunt pricing power just as Novo expands access in Europe.

The backdrop is a volatile stock. Novo shares were last around 47.24 crowns, after trading as high as 60.94 in January and as low as 34.92 in March, leaving the stock only modestly above its 50-day moving average and near its 200-day average. Recent technical readings show RSI around the mid-50s, suggesting the name is no longer deeply oversold but has yet to regain clear momentum.

For investors, the question is less about one broker’s stance than about execution. If the German launch and broader oral Wegovy rollout gain traction, Novo could defend its lead against Eli Lilly and restore confidence in its obesity pipeline. If copycats keep spreading outside the US, the market may continue to cap the multiple until the company shows it can convert demand into durable, protected revenue.

The next catalyst is how fast the pill gains prescriptions in Germany and whether management can show that international competition is not eroding growth in key obesity markets.