Nvidia, AMD face renewed China export risk

For investors, that puts a ceiling on how much of the current AI boom can be converted into earnings. Nvidia shares closed at $217.55 on Aug. 10, below their recent high of $223.96 on Aug. 7, while AMD fell to $469.56 on Aug. 10 from $483.36 the prior session and is far below its late-June peak above $580. Both stocks remain tied to the same question: how much of the global AI buildout can stay insulated from geopolitics.

The risk is sharpened by the broader semiconductor race around China. TSMC, the world’s most important contract chipmaker and a key supplier across the AI ecosystem, is still posting strong demand — July revenue rose 44.7% from a year earlier — but the industry is also fragmenting as Japan, Vietnam and others push subsidies and capacity plans to reduce dependence on concentrated supply chains.

That makes the China issue more than a bilateral trade story. If Washington broadens restrictions, Nvidia and AMD could see weaker sales in a market that helps absorb supply, while TSMC and other foundry partners are forced to keep balancing U.S. policy, customer demand and manufacturing allocation. The result is a more expensive, less predictable AI supply chain, even as investors continue to reward the companies most exposed to it.

The near-term catalyst is whether U.S. officials tighten China rules further and whether chipmakers have to update guidance on inventory, licensing and regional demand.