Skanska Upgraded to Buy by DNB Carnegie

Skanska’s shares have already outperformed enough to trade above both their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the stock closing at 28.51 crowns on Friday after touching 29.14 crowns earlier this week. Momentum indicators are no longer stretched, with RSI around 50, suggesting the market has room to absorb the new target without immediately pricing in a full move to fair value. The stock’s recent price action also shows investors have been willing to buy dips, even after a volatile summer.

The macro backdrop is mixed but supportive for selective names. US 10-year Treasury yields are hovering around 5.19%, a level that keeps financing conditions restrictive and normally weighs on property-heavy companies. At the same time, US unemployment remains near 4.0% and housing starts are forecast to stabilize around 1.28 million units, pointing to an economy that is slowing but not rolling over. For a company like Skanska, that environment tends to favor projects with stronger tenant demand and asset monetization opportunities over speculative development.

The Budapest transaction that helped frame the investment case is a good example of why analysts are warming to the stock. Skanska sold the second phase of its H2Offices project to an institutional buyer for €98 million before completion, underscoring that there is still liquidity for well-located commercial assets in Central Europe. For bulls, that supports the view that Skanska can keep recycling capital efficiently and preserve growth optionality. Bears will argue the story still depends on execution, exit pricing and the ability to shift away from weaker office markets without sacrificing returns.

For investors, the key question is whether asset sales can continue to fund growth in data centers and other structurally stronger segments without eroding earnings quality. If Skanska keeps monetizing projects into a still-resilient institutional buyer base, the upgrade may prove conservative. If funding costs stay high and transaction markets soften, the valuation upside could narrow quickly.