S&P 500 Trend Holds as Yields and Oil Rise

That is why the headline number matters to investors. Since 1999, the S&P 500 has averaged an annual gain of 8.5% when its 200-day moving average is rising, a reminder that trend matters more than noise. For long-term buyers, especially those building diversified portfolios over five, 10 or more years, that kind of backdrop is usually more important than the latest headline about a pullback.

The forward case still rests on earnings. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said the “robust activity backdrop” should keep earnings momentum moving higher, with weekly EPS revisions now net positive across key regions. That is the sort of fundamental support that can keep a bull market going even when sentiment gets shaky.

But investors should not confuse a healthy trend with a risk-free one. Bond markets are sending a warning signal of their own, with the 10-year Treasury yield recently reaching its highest level since 2023 and the 30-year yield near a two-decade high. Higher yields raise the cost of capital, pressure valuation multiples and make it harder for growth stocks to keep outrunning earnings. Oil above $90 a barrel adds another layer of complexity, especially with geopolitical tensions around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz threatening to push inflation expectations higher.

For investors, that mix creates a useful lesson: the market can keep rising even when conditions get more challenging. In fact, those are often the environments where disciplined, patient investors are rewarded. Adalytica’s S&P 500 trade snapshot shows extreme fear even as the index sits well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is exactly the kind of disconnect long-term investors should notice. Fear does not end bull markets on its own; broken earnings and broken trends usually do.

So what should investors do with this? The best move is not to guess the next headline-driven dip, but to stay focused on quality businesses, broad diversification and time in the market. If you are building wealth steadily, the current setup still supports holding through volatility — and for new money, it argues for remaining invested rather than waiting for perfect conditions that rarely arrive.

The bull market may be maturing, and returns could get more muted than in the first half, but the underlying trend still looks constructive. For investors with a multiyear horizon, that makes this market worth watching — and probably worth staying with.