Tonies shares rise to highest level since 2021

Oddo analyst Sinan Doganli kept his buy recommendation in place and said Tonies could benefit from easier comparisons and a stronger product cycle. The current Toniebox 2 generation only launched in Germany, Austria and Switzerland in mid-September 2025, with other regions coming later, giving the company room for year-on-year growth to accelerate as new markets lap a weak base.

The broker also pointed to fresh content as a tailwind. That matters because Tonies’ model depends not only on box sales but on recurring demand for themed audio content that can support revenue growth and margin expansion.

Tonies told investors in June it aims to more than double revenue to over 1.4 billion euros by 2030 and lift adjusted EBITDA margin to 16% to 18% over the medium term. It also reiterated with half-year results that 2026 revenue should rise to 760 million euros from 630 million euros, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 9% to 11%.

The next catalyst is the Nov. 12 quarterly report, which will show whether the shares’ rally is being backed by actual demand momentum or is running ahead of fundamentals. Investors will also watch whether management can justify the higher valuation after factoring in dilution from outstanding options.