Trump-linked PACs reserve $130 million for midterms

AdImpact data show the largest share comes from No Going Back PAC, which has reserved more than $98.5 million in ads. A new group, Safety and Affordability PAC, has added $27 million and is tied to MAGA Inc., the Trump super PAC that had more than $400 million on hand at the end of July.

Both new PACs were created on Sept. 1 and list the same treasurer as MAGA Inc., according to Federal Election Commission filings. MAGA Inc. itself has reserved $11 million in this cycle under its own name.

Republican operatives in vulnerable districts have been pressing Trump and his allies to step in as the party tries to hold the House and Senate in a difficult political environment. Safety and Affordability PAC is focused on House races, while No Going Back is concentrating on Senate contests, including Michigan, where it is now the second-largest Republican donor in the race behind the Senate Leadership Fund.

The spending also highlights how expensive late-cycle television advertising has become. Super PACs pay market rates, while candidates can still buy airtime at lower regulated rates in the final 60 days, meaning each dollar now buys less exposure than it did earlier in the campaign.

For investors watching the broader political landscape, the size and timing of the spending matter because control of Congress can shape tax policy, regulation and the policy outlook for sectors ranging from energy to crypto. The latest Reuters/Ipsos polling showing Trump’s approval recovering from a record low, but voters favoring Democratic control of Congress, adds to the uncertainty heading into Nov. 3.

The immediate test is whether the Trump-aligned money can move tight races in Michigan, New York’s 17th District and other battlegrounds before voters lock in. If it cannot, the Republican spending blitz will mainly illustrate the cost of trying to buy influence late.