UK consumer confidence rose for a third straight month in September, but higher inflation, energy and fuel costs are threatening to slow a recovery that is still stuck in negative territory.
UK consumer confidence rises for third straight month
GfK’s long-running index edged up one point to minus 13, the strongest run of monthly gains since summer 2024, with households slightly more upbeat about their own finances and the wider economy. The improvement matters because consumer sentiment is a leading gauge for discretionary spending, and any loss of momentum would hit retailers, leisure businesses and the broader UK growth outlook just as households face fresh pressure on budgets.
Sentiment IndicatorsⓘProprietary · adalytica.com · September 30, 2026
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The survey showed the sharpest gains in perceptions of the economy over the past year, up four points to minus 36, and personal finances, up three points to minus 3. Expectations for the next 12 months also improved, with the general economy rising one point to minus 22 and personal finances lifting to 5.
That said, the main measure remains well below zero and the index for major purchases fell one point to minus 8, suggesting consumers are still cautious on big-ticket spending. GfK consumer insights director Neil Bellamy said the rise in the savings index may indicate some households are trying to build a financial buffer, but warned that renewed inflation removes one of the main supports for sentiment in recent months.
For investors, the data points to a fragile consumer backdrop in the UK at a time when spending power is already being squeezed by higher prices. Any further deterioration could weigh on listed retailers, consumer-facing banks and travel stocks, while a steadier-than-expected recovery would support expectations for late-year demand.
The next key test will be whether inflation and energy bills continue to rise into the autumn, and whether that starts to undo the gradual recovery in confidence that has been building since April.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| UK households with savings | ▲Buffer-building, slightly better outlook | ▼Real purchasing power if inflation accelerates |
| UK retailers and leisure firms | ▲More confident consumers | ▼Cautious big-ticket spending |
| UK consumer stocks | ▲Stabilizing sentiment | ▼Higher energy and fuel bills |
| UK economy | ▲Support for near-term demand | ▼Slower consumption if confidence fades |
