Vietnamese coffee prices are edging back toward the 90,000 dong a kilogram mark as the new harvest gathers pace, even after global futures steadied, underscoring how near-term supply is still shaping the country’s domestic market more than the broader international rebound.
Vietnam coffee prices near 90,000 dong as harvest starts
Prices in the Central Highlands fell 400 to 500 dong on the day to 90,800-91,500 dong/kg, with Dak Nong quoting as high as 91,500 dong/kg after a 500 dong decline, while Dak Lak and Gia Lai traded at 91,400 dong/kg and Lam Dong at 90,800 dong/kg. The move leaves domestic cash prices hovering close to a psychologically important level for farmers and traders after a strong run earlier in the season.
The retreat reflects a familiar harvest-year pattern: as fresh beans start to reach the market, farmer selling picks up and eases the tightness that had supported prices. That matters economically because coffee remains one of Vietnam’s key export earners, and even a modest decline in farmgate prices can quickly affect household income in producing regions, margins for collectors and exporters, and the pace of sales in the physical market.
The weakness was reinforced by declines on both major futures exchanges. Robusta on London for November 2026 delivery fell 64 dollars, or 1.91%, to 3,288 dollars a ton, while Arabica in New York for December 2026 dropped 3.7 cents, or 1.17%, to 312.45 cents a pound. Later-dated contracts also eased, pointing to a broader pause after a strong rally rather than a purely local correction.
For investors and market participants, the key question is whether the drop is only a technical pullback or the start of a more durable reset. The latest move points to profit-taking after a sharp advance, while still leaving prices elevated by historical standards because of lingering weather concerns in South America and inventories that have not fully rebuilt. In that sense, the market is moving from shortage fear to seasonal normalization, not from abundance to glut.
Vietnamese farmers now face a narrower tactical choice: sell into the first wave of harvest pressure or hold back and wait for prices to stabilize. A widespread rush to sell could cap any rebound in the near term, while stronger export demand later in the year from Europe and North America could help floor the market. For now, the most likely outcome is a volatile consolidation around 90,000-92,000 dong/kg as the crop flows into the market and traders test how much demand can absorb.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Coffee buyers/exporters | ▲Lower input costs | ▼Smaller near-term supply squeeze |
| Vietnamese farmers | ▲Potentially stronger later prices | ▼Near-term farmgate income pressure |
| Robusta and Arabica futures bears | ▲Profits from correction | ▼Momentum from the recent rally |
| End consumers/roasters | ▲Cheaper raw bean costs | ▼Less urgency to secure supply |
