Argentina’s private economists have cut their 2026 growth forecast to just 1.2% and now see the peso weaker, inflation stickier and the fiscal cushion thinner than the government wants, underscoring how investors are pricing in political risk and a harder road for Javier Milei’s economic program.
Argentina 2026 growth forecast cut to 1.2%
CPI
The new expectations survey suggests markets are moving away from the official script as the country heads toward the 2027 presidential race. That matters because Argentina’s recovery still depends on maintaining disinflation, keeping the budget in surplus and preserving foreign-exchange stability long enough to rebuild confidence.
Sentiment Indicators
The median forecast now puts the retail dollar at 1,615 pesos by the end of 2026, a $20 downward revision from the previous survey, while the blue market rate is seen at 1,625 pesos and the financial CCL rate at 1,712 pesos. Those projections imply a more measured depreciation path than the recent spot rate above 1,500 pesos, but not enough to eliminate investor concern over the exchange regime.
Inflation expectations have also edged back up. Economists surveyed by El Cronista now see 2026 consumer prices rising 30.5% year on year, above the government’s 29% goal in the 2027 budget bill, even as monthly inflation is expected to stay below 2% through year-end and around 1.7% early next year.
The growth downgrade is more troubling. Private forecasters now expect GDP to expand 1.2% in 2026, far below the official 3% target, after estimates from Analytica pointed to a 2.5% seasonally adjusted contraction in the third quarter, enough to imply technical recession. If activity merely holds at September levels, the economy could escape contraction late in the year, but only marginally.
Fiscal projections remain a relative bright spot, though less comfortable than before. The survey sees a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP in 2026, below both the government’s 1.3% objective and the 1.4% agreed with the IMF, even as Argentina posts a primary surplus for a third straight year.
External accounts are the one area where the outlook has improved. Economists now expect exports of $102.9 billion and imports of $75.6 billion in 2026, leaving a trade surplus of about $27.3 billion, above the government’s estimate of $17 billion and supporting the central bank’s reserve buildup.
That reserve accumulation is critical for investors because it is the main defense against renewed peso pressure. The central bank bought $1.395 billion in October, almost triple September’s purchases, lifting cumulative 2025 buying to $15.96 billion and gross reserves to $50.3 billion, while the IMF has pressed Buenos Aires to keep strengthening its reserve buffer.
For markets, the message is straightforward: Argentina is still delivering disinflation and reserve gains, but growth is weak, fiscal room is narrow and the currency outlook remains fragile. The next test will come with official activity data and whether the government can keep the dollar anchored without sacrificing the surplus and reserve targets that underpin the entire program.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Argentine exporters | ▲Higher peso competitiveness | ▼Slower domestic demand |
| Central bank reserves | ▲Trade surplus support | ▼Exchange-rate pressure |
| Government of Javier Milei | ▲Primary surplus credibility | ▼Growth and inflation forecasts |
| Dollar holders | ▲Better hedge demand | ▼Peso appreciation bets |
