Bitcoin Outperforms S&P 500 on 90-Day Basis

That matters because Bitcoin has spent much of the past year behaving like a high-beta equity proxy, rising and falling with broader risk appetite rather than trading on its own fundamentals. A sustained move above a 50% session win rate would suggest the market is starting to treat Bitcoin less as a levered macro trade and more as a separate asset class again, even if the relationship with stocks remains tight for now.

Glassnode said the 20-day correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has climbed above 0.63, reinforcing that the two are still moving together even as Bitcoin’s relative performance improves. The analysts linked the strengthening correlation to August, when the U.S. Treasury stepped up debt buyback operations, a reminder that liquidity conditions and policy transmission remain central drivers of both crypto and equities.

Bitcoin’s latest price action underscores that tension. The token is still trading far below recent highs and has been under pressure technically, with its price near $75,000 and below its 50-day moving average of about $81,620. Its relative strength index remains in the mid-30s, indicating weak momentum rather than a full trend reversal, while the MACD is still negative. In other words, the relative improvement versus stocks is real, but it has not yet translated into a clean bullish breakout.

The stock-linked trade has also been visible in crypto-related equities. Coinbase shares have fallen to around $136 from levels above $190 earlier in the year, while MicroStrategy has dropped to about $126, leaving both well below their recent moving averages. That speaks to a broader de-risking across the crypto complex, even as Bitcoin itself begins to hold up better than equities on a session-by-session basis.

Adalytica’s Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index was still at 26, in “Fear” territory, suggesting sentiment remains fragile despite the relative-strength signal. By contrast, the S&P 500 snapshot showed “Extreme Greed” in awareness terms, highlighting how stretched equity positioning can coexist with a cautious crypto market.

For investors, the key question is whether this is a temporary pause in Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks or the start of a more durable divergence. Bullish traders will argue that a 50% win rate against the S&P 500 is an early sign of stabilization and a possible base-building phase. Bears will point out that Bitcoin is still below key trend levels, correlation remains elevated, and the asset has yet to prove it can outperform without support from broader risk markets.

The next test is whether Bitcoin can hold support on retests and push its session win rate above 50% for a sustained period. If it does, portfolio managers may start to view the token less as a proxy for U.S. tech and more as a standalone macro asset, with implications for crypto allocations, volatility trading and the leverage embedded in listed crypto equities.