Brazil’s organized crime landscape is becoming less deadly but more lucrative, a shift that matters for public safety, politics and investors as the country heads toward a critical election.
Brazil crime shifts to fraud and smuggling
The Economist says the country’s two biggest criminal factions, Primeiro Comando da Capital and Comando Vermelho, are now “consolidated and relatively stable,” even as their business model moves beyond drug trafficking into fuel theft, illegal gold, cigarette smuggling, bootleg alcohol and online fraud. That evolution helps explain the apparent paradox in Brazil: homicides have fallen to a record low of 19 per 100,000 people in 2025 from more than 30 a decade earlier, while criminal revenues continue to expand through lower-violence, higher-margin activities.
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For investors, the story is not only about security. A more sophisticated criminal economy raises compliance, insurance and operating risks across transport, retail, logistics, payments and financial services, while increasing the cost of doing business in Brazil’s largest market. The rise in online fraud, which The Economist says has grown more than fivefold since 2018, also deepens exposure for banks, fintechs and consumer-facing companies.
The report points to Rio Grande do Sul as a model for targeted policing. Under Governor Eduardo Leite, the state cut its homicide rate by half since 2017 after using real-time municipal crime data to concentrate police and social spending in the 23 of 497 municipalities where more than 90% of killings were occurring. In Alvorada, a violent suburb of Porto Alegre, homicides fell from 113 per 100,000 in 2017 to 22 now.
Goiás is cited as another case where tighter coordination between police and prosecutors helped drive down killings. That matters for policymakers in Brasília, where President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has stepped up federal anti-crime efforts ahead of elections and is pushing for cooperation rather than foreign intervention.
The broader narrative is that Brazil is moving from a war on street violence to a fight against embedded criminal cash flows. That is likely to keep security high on the political agenda and to shape how investors assess everything from regional stability to the resilience of consumer spending and the banking system.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Brazilian states using data-driven policing | ▲Lower homicide rates | ▼Crime hotspots |
| Banks and fintechs with stronger controls | ▲Better risk management demand | ▼Fraud exposure |
| Transport, fuel and retail firms | ▲Security reforms and enforcement | ▼Theft, smuggling and compliance costs |
| PCC and CV-linked networks | ▲More stable, less violent operations | ▼Police pressure and election scrutiny |
