Brazil election race tight as Bolsonaro attacks Lula

Bolsonaro used the final day of campaigning to attack Lula’s economic record, accusing the government of higher taxes, excessive spending and too much bureaucracy while vowing tougher public security, lower taxes and leaner government. He also leaned on crime, including violence against women, and on incomplete infrastructure projects, issues that resonate beyond the campaign trail because they speak to public services, fiscal priorities and the state’s capacity to deliver.

The runoff has become a referendum on whether Brazil keeps Lula’s more interventionist, left-leaning policy course or shifts toward a more market-friendly agenda. For investors, that split matters for the outlook on taxation, spending discipline, regulation and security policy, all of which can affect corporate margins, consumer confidence and foreign capital flows.

Markets are already sensitive to the result. Brazil-linked assets, including the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ, have swung sharply in recent sessions, underscoring how quickly traders are repositioning around the election outcome and the policy mix that could follow.

Flavio Bolsonaro’s pitch in Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro is aimed at mobilizing voters in swing-heavy states and turning discontent into turnout. The final result will set the tone for Brazil’s fiscal stance, investment climate and social policy for the next four years, with the biggest near-term risk being another period of political friction regardless of who wins.