China ADC12 Prices Recover as Buying Stays Thin

That matters because cast aluminum alloy pricing is closely tied to downstream die-casting demand and auto parts orders, both of which have been patchy. SMM said market quotes for ADC12 were generally raised by 100 yuan/mt, helped by the rebound in aluminum prices and futures, but actual buying remained mostly just-in-time, with customers showing limited acceptance of higher offers.

The technical backdrop also points to a fragile bounce. SMM said the prior low at 22,520 yuan/mt is acting as support, while momentum indicators remain weak, suggesting the market is still in a low-level recovery phase rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

Spot conditions are still being shaped by broader aluminum fundamentals. A00 aluminum prices rose to 23,460 yuan/mt, narrowing the spread with scrap aluminum to historically tight levels and renewing concern that primary aluminum may replace scrap in some applications. At the same time, tax audits in central China are squeezing compliant invoiced scrap supply, keeping feedstock availability tight even as downstream recyclers operate at moderate rates in the peak season.

For investors, the setup argues for cautious positioning in the aluminum complex. Short-term price support is improving, but the recovery depends on whether higher raw material costs can be passed through and whether downstream transactions follow the rise in offers. If demand stays soft, the latest rebound risks fading back into consolidation.