China ADC12 spot prices hold at 24,500 yuan

A few producers did trim offers by 100 yuan/mt, a sign that bearish sentiment is building at the margin. Still, most enterprises left quotes unchanged, suggesting they are waiting for clearer direction from the base aluminum complex and actual orders from downstream buyers. The SMM ADC12 assessment was unchanged from the prior session, reinforcing the picture of a market stuck in a narrow band rather than entering a decisive move.

Futures action told the same story. The most-traded AD2612 contract opened firmer, briefly touched 22,870 yuan/mt, then slid to an intraday low of 22,690 yuan/mt before closing at 22,765 yuan/mt, down 0.46%. That early strength faded quickly, which usually discourages spot sellers from testing the upside and encourages buyers to delay procurement in hopes of cheaper replenishment.

For investors, the takeaway is that this is not just a flat price tape — it is a classic late-cycle setup where margin pressure can build quietly. If aluminum futures keep softening, ADC12 producers and alloy converters may have to concede more on pricing, particularly if downstream purchasing remains only on a hand-to-mouth basis. But the lack of proactive discounting also says costs are still doing some of the heavy lifting, limiting how fast the market can unwind.

The next move will depend on whether aluminum prices stabilize and whether physical consumption improves. Until then, ADC12 is likely to remain a wait-and-see market with small, selective adjustments — a constructive setup only for disciplined buyers, and a margin risk for anyone caught holding inventory too long.