China Tariff Talks Lift FXI Watchlist

Chinese equities are already pricing in a less hostile backdrop. The iShares China Large-Cap ETF, FXI, last traded at $33.84, still below its 50-day moving average of $34.72 and its 200-day average of $35.85, but off the recent low of $33.19. Its RSI reading of 46.3 suggests the fund is neither overbought nor oversold, while the MACD remains negative, pointing to a market that is waiting for policy confirmation rather than fully embracing a breakout.

Broader emerging-market sentiment is firmer but still fragile. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, closed at $62.85, below its 50-day average of $66.83 and just above its lower Bollinger Band, with RSI at 28.3, a level that typically reflects heavy selling pressure. The divergence shows investors are still skeptical that diplomatic talk will translate into a sustained relief rally.

Adalytica’s US–China Relations Sentiment gauge stands at 82, in “Greed,” after a sharp one-day drop of 14 points, while China CCP Policy Direction sentiment is at 96, or “Extreme Greed,” suggesting expectations for policy support remain elevated even as global stability sentiment has fallen to 21. That mix underscores the market’s central dilemma: investors want signs of de-escalation, but they have yet to see a lasting resolution.

The next catalyst is whether the ministers’ talks lead to follow-through on tariff restraint, export access and implementation details. Without that, recent gains in China-related assets could fade quickly, especially if trade rhetoric re-intensifies ahead of the next negotiating deadline.