Copper prices hit records on China inventory drop

The driver is less about speculation alone than a tightening in the spot market. Shanghai Metals Market said imported copper in China has been flowing directly to end users rather than warehouses, limiting available supply, while stocks of copper cathodes in Shanghai fell to 43,900 tons, the lowest since 2023. Seasonality is adding pressure as manufacturers build inventories ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday period, which begins this week in China and can temporarily disrupt supply chains.

For producers, the price surge is a clear earnings tailwind. Chilean miners and other major copper exporters are benefiting from firmer realized prices, and US-listed Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper have both seen their shares track the metal higher this year. But the upside is not clean: higher operating and investment costs are eating into margins, and the recent volatility shows how quickly gains can reverse if the dollar strengthens or US monetary-policy expectations shift.

That tension is what investors are watching now. The market is pricing a commodity shortage narrative, but copper has already moved far enough that any disappointment in Chinese demand, US data or trade policy could trigger a sharp unwind. Still, with inventories low and the metal repeatedly testing record territory, traders are likely to keep probing whether $15,000 a ton is the next psychological level.