Germany AfD hits record 30% in INSA poll

INSA’s survey, taken from Sept. 28 to Oct. 2 among 1,202 eligible voters and published Oct. 3, gives AfD the highest support of any party measured. The SPD and Greens were tied at 14%, while the Left came in at 10%, leaving Merz’s conservatives far behind the far-right party they continue to rule out as a governing partner.

The collapse in CDU/CSU support is especially stark because the bloc was polling around 30% before Merz took office in May. INSA said backing has fallen sharply since then, as Merz’s government pushed ahead with higher defense spending, signaled cuts to some social spending and floated pension reform — all politically fraught moves in a country already struggling with weak momentum and voter fatigue.

The poll follows what Merz himself called a “disastrous” showing in two eastern state elections, where AfD widened its lead over the conservatives. AfD won 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt and 38.3% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern; the CDU finished second with 17.5% in Saxony-Anhalt and failed to clear the threshold for seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern with 4.9%.

The political shift also has a foreign-policy edge. Merz has refused to soften his stance on defense and Russia, saying Germany must protect its freedom against Moscow, even as the Kremlin rejects Berlin’s warnings as absurd. That means the government is likely to stay on a harder security line, but with less domestic political capital to sell it.

For investors, the main risk is that Germany’s policy agenda becomes harder to execute just as the economy needs clearer support for spending, energy, industrial competitiveness and defense procurement. The next test is whether Merz can arrest the slide before it turns into a deeper governing crisis that drags on German assets and wider European sentiment.