Germany CDU/CSU narrows gap with AfD in polls

The move matters because Germany’s next federal election will shape policy on fiscal spending, industrial support, migration and European security at a time when the continent is under economic and geopolitical strain. A stronger CDU/CSU result would improve Merz’s hand in any future coalition talks, but the numbers still leave the governing camp short of a majority and the AfD ahead, keeping the risk of political fragmentation elevated.

The ZDF reading follows a sharp run-up for the AfD in September and early October, when INSA polls showed the party reaching a record 29.5% and then 30%, while the CDU/CSU fell as low as 18%. Merz’s personal approval has also been weak, with one INSA survey showing only 15% satisfaction with his performance, making the recent recovery notable but still far from decisive.

For investors, the polling shift is relevant because German politics feeds directly into euro-area fiscal strategy, defense spending and the pace of economic reform. Markets will be watching whether Merz can translate the poll bounce into a more stable governing position, or whether persistent AfD strength continues to complicate policy-making in Berlin and weigh on confidence in the euro.

The next test will be whether the CDU/CSU can sustain the rebound beyond a single survey cycle, especially as voters continue to react to inflation pressures, industrial stagnation and broader European political uncertainty.