Gold, Platinum, Copper COT Signals Turn Bullish

Platinum posted the strongest weekly change, with commercials’ net position shifting 23% in a move that qualifies as a bullish COT signal. That is notable in a smaller market where positioning can move prices quickly. Commercials are still 11,744 contracts net short, so the market is not yet at a historical extreme, but the direction of travel matters. Gold also flashed a bullish change signal, with commercials’ net position swinging 20% week on week. Copper joined the group with a 20% commercial shift, though the more important question there is whether speculative positioning can push back toward prior extremes and revive a rally that has recently stalled.

The euro is the key macro overlay. Its 597-report extreme is the sort of positioning level that can mark important turning points, and the last comparable reading around 2016 eventually preceded a multi-year advance. If the euro’s positioning translates into sustained dollar pressure, that would be broadly constructive for commodities priced in dollars, particularly gold and silver, and could provide a tailwind for the metals complex even if the move is not immediate.

Market action so far is consistent with caution rather than conviction. GLD, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, has fallen sharply from above $490 in early March to about $361, while its RSI has recovered from deeply oversold territory to 33.8, still below neutral. PPLT, the platinum ETF, has been even more stressed, dropping to about $13.07 from above $25 in late January, with RSI near 20.7, a level that typically reflects heavy selling pressure. The euro ETF FXE has stabilized around 103.25 after dipping below its 50-day average, but remains slightly under its 200-day moving average. That mix suggests positioning may be turning before prices do.

There is also a sentiment mismatch worth noting. Adalytica’s Gold Fear & Greed Index still shows fear at 18, even as awareness sits at an extreme 99, while U.S. dollar trade signals point to fear at 21 and awareness at 99. That combination argues that markets are paying close attention to the macro setup, but are not yet fully committed to a directional breakout. In other words, the COT data may be identifying potential fuel, while price action is still waiting for a catalyst.

For investors, the message is that the setup has improved for precious metals, but the trade is still conditional on follow-through in the euro and a firmer break in dollar weakness. If that occurs, gold and platinum could benefit from both technical mean reversion and a more supportive currency backdrop. If it does not, the current bullish COT signals may remain just that — signals rather than a durable trend.