Greece plans bigger winter heating oil aid package

That revenue stream is significant for an economy still balancing household relief against the need to protect the budget. Officials say the pool for extra measures is only about 130 million to 150 million euros, drawn from the 2025 surplus, underscoring how limited room is for broad-based intervention even as energy costs stay elevated.

Heating oil is a politically sensitive price point in Greece because the start of the winter season typically lifts demand just as households face higher utility bills. Current support ranges from 100 euros to 800 euros, and can reach 1,200 euros in the coldest areas, but the final size of the increase has not yet been set.

The diesel subsidy matters beyond households because transport, small businesses and farmers feed directly into broader inflation and operating costs. Keeping the pump aid in place would help cushion those sectors if crude prices stay firm, while a deeper cut in fuel taxes would deliver faster relief but leave the treasury with a larger hole to fill.

Benchmark oil prices remain well above levels that would make the political problem disappear on their own, with U.S. crude futures around $104 a barrel and heating oil futures near $4.68 a gallon. That leaves Athens relying on targeted subsidies rather than a market reprieve.

Investors will watch whether the government settles for a temporary extension of support or goes further on taxes, a decision that would ripple through inflation, consumer spending and fiscal execution. The next catalyst is the final package around Oct. 15, when heating oil sales begin and the cost of winter support becomes immediately visible.