India Dhanteras gold sales seen rising 10%

That split matters for India’s jewellery retailers because revenue can grow even as tonnage falls, changing the outlook for margins, inventory and credit demand across the sector. The federation’s estimate is above the Rs 60,000 crore Dhanteras sales figure cited by the Confederation of All India Traders last year, but it also comes against a backdrop of weaker physical demand.

The World Gold Council said India’s gold jewellery demand fell 20% year-on-year in the July-September quarter to 99.9 tonnes, even as the value of that demand climbed 16% to Rs 1.48 lakh crore, underscoring how price inflation is reshaping consumer behavior. Gold bar and coin demand rose 9% sequentially in the quarter to 55 tonnes, but remained 40% below a year earlier.

AIJGF said households are also juggling higher food, energy and transport costs, with retail inflation at 5.54% in September and food inflation at 7.74%, squeezing discretionary spending just as the festive and wedding season peaks. That keeps the focus on value growth rather than a true recovery in physical volumes.

For investors, the near-term read-through is mixed: Indian jewellers may post stronger rupee sales, but with product mix skewing lighter and inventory turnover more sensitive to gold price swings. The next cue will come from post-Dhanteras sales data and whether wedding-season buying can sustain value growth without a further drop in volumes.