Nepal food inflation rises before Dashain

Nepal Rastra Bank’s consumer price index showed the steepest gains in ghee and oil, up 15.62%, and fruit, up 15.39%, followed by meat and fish at 8.65% and vegetables at 6.90%. Sugar and sugar products rose 4.61%, spices 4.80% and cereal grains and their products 3.08%. Store checks showed mutton at Rs1,600-1,700 per kg, from Rs1,300-1,400 a year earlier, while chicken climbed to about Rs450 per kg from Rs370-400. A crate of 30 eggs rose to Rs650-700 from about Rs500, and mustard oil advanced to Rs460 a litre from Rs410.

The pressure is not confined to food. Transportation costs rose 13.17% in the review period, while non-food items and services increased 5.52%, suggesting the surge is broadening household cost burdens rather than staying isolated in the kitchen. Traders and consumers blamed tighter fuel costs after conflict in the Middle East, weak supply chains, layers of intermediaries and poor enforcement of consumer protection rules.

That combination is economically significant because Nepal, where about 20% of the population lives below the poverty line, is especially vulnerable to food-led inflation. When staples rise faster than wages, consumption shifts toward essentials and away from discretionary spending, dampening festive demand and potentially slowing retail activity during one of the country’s busiest spending periods.

The retail squeeze also has implications for businesses selling consumer goods. Prices of appliances and personal electronics are higher than last Dashain, including a 55-inch television at Rs101,790 versus Rs92,000 a year ago, a 190-litre refrigerator at Rs27,290 from Rs26,000, and an entry-level smartphone around Rs28,000 from Rs15,000. Footwear prices have also climbed, indicating that households are facing inflation across both necessities and celebratory purchases.

For investors and policymakers, the reading points to persistent inflation risks rather than a one-off spike. If food inflation remains elevated through the festive season, it could keep pressure on the central bank to remain vigilant even if broader price growth looks contained. It also reinforces the case for tighter supply management, fewer intermediaries and more aggressive market enforcement if authorities want to prevent a seasonal price shock from becoming a broader consumer slowdown.