Poland zloty eyes NBP press conference

Bank Millennium said a soft message from the NBP president would be negative for the zloty and could support shorter-dated Polish government bonds. PKO BP strategists were more cautious on any upside from a hawkish tone, arguing that the currency remains driven mainly by global factors, especially fiscal concerns and the dollar. Their baseline is for USD/PLN to grind higher toward 3.93-3.94, while EUR/PLN may remain stuck in a sideways range.

That matters because Poland’s exchange rate has become a transmission channel for both domestic policy expectations and external shocks. A more dovish NBP would tend to lower near-term rate expectations, weighing on the currency and anchoring shorter yields, while a hawkish pivot could briefly support both. But with the Federal Reserve’s September minutes leaning slightly hawkish and markets still pricing the possibility of another U.S. rate increase, the dollar’s broader bid is complicating any zloty rebound.

Brent crude above $102 a barrel has also added a fresh inflation and bond-market risk, with Millennium warning that higher oil prices could push up Polish yields, particularly early in the session. That creates an awkward backdrop for the NBP: if the central bank sounds unconcerned about inflation, investors may infer that policy will stay loose relative to external pressures, even as imported price shocks build.

Technically, USD/PLN has already been in a clear upswing. The pair traded at 3.92 in the latest reading, above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the relative strength index around 80, a level that usually points to stretched momentum rather than immediate reversal. That does not guarantee a pullback, but it underlines how much bad news for the zloty is already embedded before Glapiński speaks.

For investors, the immediate trade is less about whether the NBP can engineer a lasting move in the currency and more about whether it prevents one. A hawkish message could slow further zloty weakness and steady local bonds at the margin. A dovish one would likely reinforce the view that Poland is vulnerable to dollar strength, oil-driven inflation pressure and higher global rates, leaving USD/PLN with room to extend toward the 3.93-3.94 area.