Solana has slipped back under the closely watched $100 level, putting the market’s next test on whether buyers can defend that support after a post-upgrade selloff failed to stick. The move matters because $100 has become the line between a technical rebound and a deeper washout, and SOL is now trading well below the 50-day moving average near $109.
Solana Falls Below $100 After Alpenglow Upgrade
SOL closed at $99.73 on Oct. 29, down 2.4% on the day and 9.2% for the month, after briefly holding above $100 twice earlier in October. The token has fallen roughly 10% over the past month, a sharper drop than bitcoin’s 2% decline over the same period, underscoring how Solana tends to underperform when risk appetite fades across crypto.
Sentiment Indicators
The failed bounce came after Solana’s Alpenglow upgrade went live on Oct. 21, cutting transaction finality to about 150 milliseconds. Instead of driving fresh buying, the technical improvement triggered a classic sell-the-news reaction, with SOL falling about 5% the next day as traders locked in gains after a strong run over the prior 90 days.
That reaction matters for investors because it suggests fundamentals are not overriding macro pressure and profit-taking in the near term. SOL is still far below its all-time high of about $293 set in January 2025, and with the 20-day and 50-day moving averages clustered around $110, the path of least resistance remains lower unless the token can reclaim that area decisively.
Momentum indicators also point to strain. SOL’s relative strength index sits at 35.3, near oversold territory but not yet a clear reversal signal, while the MACD remains negative. The current band structure shows support near $98.49, with the next obvious floor below $100 around $95, where buyers previously stepped in.
A break below that zone would expose the July low around $74, the level that helped launch the summer rally. For now, SOL’s fate is tied to whether crypto sentiment stabilizes enough to bring sidelined buyers back into a market that is still trading with a fear-heavy tone.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| SOL bulls | ▲A hold above $100 | ▼A break toward $95/$74 |
| SOL sellers | ▲Weak momentum and failed bounce | ▼A reclaim of $110 resistance |
| Bitcoin | ▲Relative outperformance versus SOL | ▼Broader crypto fear spillover |
| Solana network | ▲Faster finality from Alpenglow | ▼Price failing to reflect the upgrade |
