Spain GDP forecast rises as inflation stays high

The revision leaves Spain among the stronger performers in Europe, even as the broader global economy is slowing. The OECD said world growth moderated to 2.6% in the first half of 2026 from 3.6% in the final six months of 2025, with energy prices and supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict posing the biggest near-term risk.

For investors, the mix matters because stronger growth can support corporate earnings, tax receipts and credit quality, but higher inflation reduces the odds of rapid policy easing and can keep borrowing costs elevated. The OECD warned that central banks may need further tightening if inflation expectations become unanchored, while governments should keep any energy support targeted and temporary.

That backdrop is important for Spanish assets, where resilience in domestic demand and foreign investment is helping offset pressure from a wider energy shock and a trade deficit that has widened sharply. It also keeps attention on the cost of debt across Europe, with the OECD flagging higher sovereign bond yields and heavy long-dated corporate issuance as a source of upward pressure on market rates.

The report points to a split economy: Spain is growing, but the inflation pulse remains too strong for comfort. For markets, the next catalyst is whether energy prices stabilize enough to let inflation cool without undermining the country’s still-solid expansion.