Turkey is set to publish a new three-year Medium Term Program on Sunday that will reset inflation, growth, employment and budget goals, a move investors will read as the clearest sign yet of how Ankara plans to steer the economy through 2029.
Turkey Medium Term Program to reset economic targets
The roadmap, to be unveiled by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, comes as markets look for confirmation that the government will keep tightening policy enough to slow inflation while still protecting growth and jobs. It will also set the spending ceilings for public agencies, making it relevant for fiscal discipline, domestic demand and the country’s financing needs.
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The timing matters because the current 2026-2028 plan already points to a steep but orderly disinflation path, with inflation targeted at 16% in 2026, 9% in 2027 and 8% in 2028, while growth was projected at 3.8%, 4.3% and 5% respectively. The budget deficit was expected to narrow to 2.8% of GDP by the end of the period, and unemployment was set to ease from 8.4% to 7.8%.
Any revision to those numbers will be watched closely by bondholders, currency traders and equity investors who have been betting on a more orthodox policy mix in Turkey after years of high inflation and policy volatility. Clearer, more credible targets can support lira assets, lower risk premia and improve capital inflows; weaker or overly optimistic assumptions would do the opposite.
The program is also expected to spell out reform priorities and a timetable, giving investors a better read on how Ankara plans to balance price stability, financial stability and employment. It will be signed by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and published in the Official Gazette after the announcement.
For markets, the key question is whether the new roadmap reinforces the disinflation story or signals a more growth-friendly stance ahead of local budget decisions and future central bank meetings. The closer the targets align with economic reality, the more room Turkey may have to rebuild confidence in its policy framework.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Turkish government | ▲Policy credibility if targets are realistic | ▼Pressure if revisions look optimistic |
| Bondholders/lenders | ▲Better fiscal clarity | ▼Higher risk if deficit targets widen |
| Lira bulls | ▲Lower inflation and stronger discipline | ▼Weaker confidence if targets soften |
| Domestic businesses/consumers | ▲Clearer growth and inflation path | ▼Tighter policy if disinflation deepens |
