Ukraine hryvnia seen stable as import demand stays high

The bigger issue for investors is not the week-ahead range but the persistence of underlying pressure. Lesovyi said the war is creating a fresh round of business costs as firms spend more on backup power, rerouted logistics, equipment repairs and downtime protection. Those expenses feed into consumer prices with a lag, sustaining inflation and, in turn, the demand for foreign exchange as households and companies seek to preserve purchasing power.

Fuel imports remain another critical channel. Ukraine depends heavily on imported petroleum products, so higher prices and more complicated logistics translate directly into extra dollar demand from importers. That matters because fuel is a broad input into transport and production costs, meaning energy stress can widen into a wider inflation impulse.

The clearest macro constraint, however, is the external balance. Lesovyi said Ukraine imports 2.5 times more than it exports in monetary terms, leaving a goods trade gap of nearly $40 billion. In an economy with such a structural deficit, currency stability depends less on market self-correction than on official support and FX inflows from partners. Without that backstop, pressure on the hryvnia would be materially stronger.

For markets, the message is that the dollar’s near-term calm should not be mistaken for improved fundamentals. A stable band around 45 per dollar suggests the National Bank is still containing disorderly moves, but the combination of war spending, higher import dependence and inflationary pass-through leaves the currency vulnerable if external financing weakens or energy disruptions intensify.

The near-term outlook therefore hinges on whether the current balance of intervention and inflows can keep pace with demand for hard currency. If it can, the hryvnia may remain range-bound. If it cannot, the market will eventually test the ceiling of that stability.