Vietnam trade surplus with Japan widens in 2026
Vietnam’s trade surplus with Japan widened in the first eight months of 2026 as Japanese demand for Vietnamese exports rose faster than Vietnam’s purchases from its second-largest Asian trading partner, reinforcing the country’s role in regional supply chains.
Japan spent $20.4 billion on Vietnamese goods in the January-August period, up 17% from a year earlier, while Vietnam’s imports from Japan climbed 13.2% to $18.1 billion, leaving Hanoi with a $2.32 billion surplus, according to Vietnamese trade data. Total bilateral trade reached $38.6 billion, underscoring how the relationship is being driven less by consumer goods alone and more by industrial inputs, machinery and electronics that feed cross-border production.
The composition of trade matters. Vietnamese textiles remained the largest export category to Japan at $2.79 billion, followed by transport equipment and parts at $2.27 billion and machinery and equipment at $2.09 billion. Phones and components brought in $1.83 billion, while computers, electronics and parts added $1.67 billion. That mix suggests Japan is not just buying finished goods from Vietnam but also sourcing manufactured products that sit in higher-value supply chains.
On the import side, Vietnam bought $6.7 billion of computers, electronics and components from Japan and $3.4 billion of machinery and equipment, indicating that Japanese firms remain deeply embedded in Vietnam’s industrial base. For Vietnam, that supports export capacity and factory output; for Japan, it reflects a continued reliance on Southeast Asia for production diversification as companies manage geopolitical and cost risks across Asia.
For investors, the data is a reminder that Vietnam’s export story is still broadening beyond low-cost assembly into a more balanced manufacturing platform. That could support earnings for exporters, logistics providers and industrial suppliers linked to Japan-centric production networks. It also helps explain why Vietnam continues to attract capital from firms looking to reduce dependence on China-centered supply chains.
The bull case is that stronger trade with Japan improves Vietnam’s external accounts, supports manufacturing employment and bolsters demand for industrial infrastructure. The bear case is that the surplus still depends on cyclical export categories such as garments and machinery, leaving Vietnam exposed if Japanese demand slows or if global electronics orders soften.
The next test is whether Vietnam can keep lifting value-added exports while easing logistics bottlenecks and compliance costs that can limit margins. If it does, Japan’s growing purchases may prove less a one-off trade burst than a sign of a deeper reordering in Asian manufacturing.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam exporters | ▲Higher sales to Japan | ▼Exposure to demand swings |
| Japan manufacturers | ▲Secure supply-chain inputs | ▼Higher import dependence |
| Vietnamese trade balance | ▲Wider surplus | ▼Greater reliance on exports |
| Competing Asian suppliers | ▲Less share in Japan | ▼Lost sourcing opportunities |