California billionaire wealth tax vote draws $1M daily spending

Opponents argue the tax would do the opposite by driving capital and founders out of the state. That warning already has some traction: Peter Thiel, Larry Page and Sergey Brin are among the billionaires who have left California since the measure advanced, a sign that even the prospect of a wealth levy is changing behavior among high-net-worth residents. The debate has turned into a test case for whether states can tax wealth without losing the taxpayers they are targeting.

The money being thrown at the ballot fight is extraordinary. Official filings cited by The Guardian show opponents have raised about $340 million, compared with $33 million for supporters, with Sergey Brin alone giving at least $102 million. In the first 19 days of September, the anti-tax campaign spent at least $21.2 million, flooding voters with texts, mailers and ads warning that the proposal would “hit all Californians with higher taxes.”

That spending has narrowed the race. A University of Southern California poll in late September showed 45% of voters planning to back the tax and 42% opposing it, down from a seven-point support lead a month earlier. Two rival ballot measures — propositions 41 and 42 — add another layer of risk by potentially blocking the tax even if Proposition 40 wins.

The ballot fight also splits Democrats and labor allies. Bernie Sanders is backing the measure as a national model, while Governor Gavin Newsom, several gubernatorial candidates and even former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter have lined up against it, arguing it could push wealth out of California permanently. Nvidia founder Jensen Huang has taken the opposite view from many in tech, saying paying more in taxes is a privilege.

For investors, the outcome will be watched well beyond California. A win for supporters would embolden wealth-tax campaigns in other states and sharpen the pressure on ultra-rich founders, venture investors and public-company executives. A defeat would reinforce the argument that aggressive wealth levies are politically potent but economically difficult to collect without prompting capital flight.

With less than a month until the vote, the final stretch will hinge on whether billionaire spending can overwhelm the tax’s populist appeal — and whether California voters see the measure as a health-care rescue or a warning shot at the state’s wealth engine.