Catalonia Labor Squeeze as Retirements Rise

That imbalance matters because the coming vacancies will be driven largely by retirements rather than growth. CEDEFOP, the European Union’s vocational training agency, estimates most job openings through 2035 will stem from replacement demand, a sign that aging populations across Europe are reshaping labor markets even before cyclical weakness enters the picture.

For companies, the impact is likely to be uneven but broad. Manufacturing and retail will account for the biggest number of retirements in absolute terms because they employ large workforces, but the fiercest generational strain may hit agriculture, public administration, real estate, parts of construction and industry, domestic work and social services, where older employees already make up a far larger share than average.

The pressure is also concentrated in specific occupations, including skilled agricultural, livestock and fishing workers, shop owners, library and postal workers, and administrative support professionals. That concentration raises the risk of labor bottlenecks in services and essential local industries where replacement is already difficult.

Employers say the issue is not yet at the top of the HR agenda. Jesús M. García, content director at Aedipe Catalunya, said companies are still focused on finding scarce specialized profiles, while the larger retirement wave is building in the background. He warned that firms risk losing knowledge and experience unless they plan succession earlier and strengthen transfer between generations.

That challenge is becoming more acute as work itself changes. García said artificial intelligence is already replacing some junior roles while extending the usefulness of more experienced workers, but its rapid evolution makes workforce planning harder. For investors, that means aging labor markets are not just a social issue: they can affect operating costs, labor availability, margins and the pace at which companies can execute growth plans.

The bigger message for Catalonia is that labor supply will depend not only on how many workers retire, but on whether more people can stay employed longer in good conditions. The observatory’s findings point to job quality, physical demands, job security and social support as key factors shaping how long people remain in the workforce.