Delhi gold tops Rs 1.5 lakh ahead of Diwali

The timing is important. Dussehra is usually one of the markers that sets the tone for Diwali buying, and the next few weeks can determine how much physical demand gets pulled forward into jewellery stores and bullion dealers. Even with today’s stability in silver, the metal has already become expensive enough to challenge discretionary purchases. That creates a tug of war: seasonal demand can support prices, but higher levels also risk delaying or trimming buying from budget-sensitive households.

Global markets are still providing support. Spot gold was trading above $4,175 an ounce, up more than 1% in the latest session, while silver was also higher at about $57.63 an ounce. That backdrop matters because domestic prices in India track international bullion trends plus currency moves, meaning local buyers are exposed to both global strength and any weakness in the rupee. The upshot is that a pause in domestic prices after Dussehra would likely require a clearer turn in overseas gold and silver, not just softer local demand.

That is why analysts remain cautious about calling the top. Vikas Gupta, chief executive of Omnisci Science Capital, said festive and wedding-season buying could keep gold supported, but expectations around US Federal Reserve rates may cap further gains. That is the key macro variable for investors: if US rates stay higher for longer, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion rises; if policy eases, gold and silver can extend their rally. The 10-year US Treasury yield around 5.12% also keeps that trade-off in focus.

For jewellery demand, the near-term effect is mixed. Richer buyers may continue to buy for tradition and hedging, while smaller buyers could wait for a pullback. For investors, that means the market may see more volatility than a straight-line festive rally. Gold’s climb above Rs 1.5 lakh is as much a reflection of global macro uncertainty as it is of Indian seasonal demand, and the next move after Dussehra will likely hinge on whether foreign bullion keeps rising faster than local buying can absorb it.