Dow Jones Tests July Low as Yields Rise

For the Dow, the technical picture has deteriorated as the index resumes its descent toward 51,547, the July trough, with a break there exposing the March-to-September uptrend line around 51,450 and then the September low at 51,192. The index would need to recover above Tuesday’s 52,324 high to ease the pressure and put 52,516 and the 52,661-to-52,760 resistance zone back in play.

The move comes as the S&P 500 remains in a risk-on mood in some corners, with Adalytica’s SPY trade signals showing “Extreme Greed,” but the Dow is lagging as investors rotate around rate sensitivity and policy uncertainty. That split underscores how the latest leg higher in yields is hitting cyclical and dividend-heavy blue chips more directly than growth-heavy benchmarks.

In foreign exchange, EUR/JPY is consolidating after a run to a 2 1/2-month high, with the pair struggling to extend beyond last week’s ¥181.55 peak. A break above that level, and ideally the May high at ¥182.05, would reopen ¥183.17, while support sits around ¥179.54 to ¥179.38.

The euro’s broader backdrop remains fragile even as the pair trades elevated, with Adalytica’s euro signal flashing “Extreme Fear” and the dollar holding near multi-week highs against major peers. That leaves EUR/JPY increasingly driven by the relative stance of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, rather than by simple dollar weakness.

US natural gas futures are the clearest upside outlier, gapping above resistance at $2.857-$2.860 and printing a 2 1/2-month high at $2.90, just below the 200-day moving average near $2.924. A further push through that area would bring the psychologically important $3 level into view, while the old breakout zone near $2.857-$2.860 should now act as support.

For investors, the setup argues for continued rotation between rate-sensitive equities, currency crosses and energy contracts as traders reassess the Fed outlook and risk appetite. The next catalyst is likely to come from fresh US policy data, another batch of Fed commentary and whether the Dow can hold above its key July and September support levels.