EU keeps Russia sanctions, drops Usmanov and Fridman

For investors, the significance is less about two names than about the precedent. Sanctions regimes are rarely static, and once the first high-profile exclusions happen, markets begin to assess whether Europe is entering a phase of selective easing, litigation-driven carveouts, or a gradual fracturing of consensus. That can matter for Russian assets that remain under heavy restrictions, for European companies with residual exposure to Russia-linked counterparties, and for legal and compliance risk across banks, trading houses and insurers.

The broader narrative is one of a constrained thaw, not reconciliation. The EU has kept most punitive measures intact despite no change in the core facts of the war: Russia has not withdrawn from occupied territory, ended the fighting, paid reparations or returned Ukrainian children deported from occupied areas. In that context, the removal of Usmanov and Fridman is best read as a tactical concession inside Europe’s sanctions machinery, not as a signal of policy reset toward the Kremlin.

Still, the optics matter. Sanctions lists have become both a diplomatic tool and a battleground in court, where individual designations are often challenged on due process grounds. When major oligarchs succeed in being removed, it strengthens the hand of others seeking relief and may encourage more aggressive legal challenges. It also tests how far member states are willing to go in balancing the unity of the sanctions regime against domestic political and legal pressures.

The immediate market reaction may be muted because the exclusions do not reopen access to the Russian economy in any meaningful way. But the episode will be watched closely for what comes next: whether the EU’s sanctions architecture stays rigid, or whether this becomes the first visible sign that Europe is preparing for a slower, selective normalization while the war remains unresolved.