EUR/USD Stalls Near 1.14 as Dollar Bid Persists

The pair’s latest reading at 1.14 leaves it below its 50-day simple moving average of 1.15 and its 200-day average of 1.16, a sign momentum remains soft despite recent stabilization. The relative strength index is hovering around 52, which points to consolidation rather than a strong reversal, while the MACD has only just moved back toward neutral after turning negative in mid-July.

That fits with the broader dollar backdrop. Adalytica’s U.S. dollar trade signals show sentiment at neutral, but the greenback continues to benefit from geopolitical caution, including tensions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and a wider bid for safety in global markets. Reuters-style market flows have also been favoring the dollar as investors unwind risk elsewhere, helping keep EUR/USD from reclaiming lost ground.

The euro, by contrast, still looks vulnerable despite a recent jump in Adalytica’s Euro Trade Signals sentiment to 88, labeled extreme greed. That kind of sharp improvement has not yet translated into price follow-through, suggesting the euro’s recent bounce is more tactical than structural and that traders are still reluctant to chase strength above the mid-1.14s.

For FX investors, the key question now is whether EUR/USD can hold above the low-1.14 area or whether the next leg higher in the dollar sends the pair back toward recent lows. The next catalyst is likely to be fresh U.S. macro data, Fed commentary or another escalation in geopolitical risk, any of which could decide whether this recovery finally gains traction or fades again.