Trump approval falls to 32% in Reuters/Ipsos poll

The political stakes are immediate. Democrats now lead Republicans by 8 percentage points in the national generic ballot, 43% to 35%, the widest margin Reuters/Ipsos has recorded this year. That points to a tougher environment for the GOP in the midterms, when control of Congress will determine whether Trump can advance his agenda or face two years of legislative resistance.

Cost of living remains the central vulnerability. Just 17% of respondents said they approve of Trump’s handling of inflation and everyday expenses, the top issue voters say will shape their ballot. That is a warning sign for investors because persistent dissatisfaction around prices usually feeds broader political pressure for looser fiscal policy and faster economic relief, even when inflation is still above levels voters find comfortable.

The Iran conflict is adding to that strain. Only 34% of respondents backed the airstrikes on Iran, while 82% said the war is likely to continue for a long time. The campaign has already lifted gasoline and diesel prices, and the poll suggests the public is connecting the war to household costs — a politically toxic combination for a president who promised to tame inflation and avoid foreign entanglements.

For markets, the main implication is not just election risk but policy uncertainty. A weaker Trump hand in Congress could constrain his domestic agenda, while a prolonged Middle East conflict keeps a premium on energy, supports the dollar on risk aversion and complicates the outlook for inflation and interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield, already elevated around 5.2%, reflects how sensitive markets remain to any renewed inflation impulse from oil.

Trump still retains strong support on immigration among Republican voters, but that has not offset the broader erosion tied to prices and war. If the trend holds, the coming weeks could sharpen the divide between a president relying on base loyalty and a wider electorate increasingly focused on the cost of living — a mix that would leave both Republican candidates and risk assets exposed.