European logistics groups face higher freight rates

Hapag-Lloyd has already raised its full-year outlook, and Bernstein expects Maersk to follow with a third increase this year. That would underscore how persistent pricing power has outlasted earlier fears of a broader freight slowdown, even as trade flows normalize only gradually.

Forwarders are also set to report solid quarters, but the earnings pickup is less direct. Morningstar’s Ben Slupecki said rate inflation does not flow through to freight brokers as cleanly as it does to shipowners, though complex supply chains are pushing more shippers toward large operators that can manage global networks and sell higher-margin customs, insurance and warehousing services.

Investors have rewarded the sector this year. Maersk has led European logistics shares higher on expectations of another forecast upgrade, while DSV has lagged after integration worries around Schenker and a weaker second quarter. J.P. Morgan said it is watching for signs that DHL can capture more supply-chain-related profit and return to profitable growth, while Kuehne+Nagel is also expected to post strong results in the third and fourth quarters.

DSV opens the sector’s third-quarter reporting season on Oct. 21, and the key question for investors is how long the rate backdrop can stay supportive as some shipping lines, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM and Cosco, gradually restore services through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Analysts say that reopening is unlikely to hit 2026 earnings materially, but a fuller normalization of routes could pressure freight rates more meaningfully into 2027.