Gold and silver outlook for Dhanteras buyers

Vedika Narvekar of Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers sees gold rising to ₹1.75 lakh by November 2027, ₹2.15 lakh by November 2029 and ₹2.60 lakh by November 2031, implying gains of about 20.8% over one year, 48.4% over three years and 79.4% over five years from current levels. Her silver outlook is even more aggressive — ₹2.60 lakh, ₹3.10 lakh and ₹3.50 lakh over the same horizons — which translates into expected gains of 37.8%, 64.3% and 85.5%.

That gap is exactly why investors should not treat gold and silver as interchangeable festive purchases. Gold remains the core hedge: it has delivered annualised returns of roughly 15% to 16% over the past two decades in rupee terms, and the demand backdrop still looks structurally supportive. Central banks continue to add to reserves, exchange-traded fund inflows are rising and the case for easier monetary policy remains intact as real rates drift lower. In a world where government debt is climbing and geopolitical risk is not fading, gold’s role as a monetary insurance asset is becoming more valuable, not less.

Silver, by contrast, is the higher-beta trade. Narvekar notes that it has produced around 16% annualised returns over 10 years but only about 11% over 20 years, and its path is much rougher. The metal can surge harder than gold when industrial demand and investment flows align, but it can also correct violently. She points out that silver is already down more than 55% from its January peak, underscoring how quickly sentiment can unwind. That makes silver attractive for investors chasing asymmetric upside, but only as a smaller satellite position.

The industrial story is what makes silver interesting beyond the festive season. Solar panels, electronics and electrification keep widening the long-term demand base, and tight physical availability can amplify price spikes. But the same exposure leaves silver vulnerable if global growth slows or solar manufacturers trim usage. That is why silver may outperform gold in a strong reflationary or supply-squeeze scenario, yet underperform badly if macro conditions deteriorate.

A second strategist, NS Ramaswamy of Ventura, is broadly aligned on the near-term setup but sees a different path after the first year. He expects gold at ₹1.75 lakh in a year, then ₹1.65 lakh in three years before rising to ₹2 lakh in five years, while silver could reach ₹2.50 lakh, slip to ₹2.25 lakh and then jump to ₹4 lakh by 2031. His call reinforces the same investment lesson: gold is the steadier compounder, while silver is the more speculative, supply-sensitive lever on a precious-metals bull market.

The market backdrop supports caution on timing, even as the longer-term thesis remains constructive. Gold-linked assets have eased off recent highs, and silver has been especially erratic. For investors buying this Dhanteras, that means the best approach is not to bet on a single direction in the next few weeks, but to position for the next several years. Own gold as the foundation. Add silver only if you want more torque and can tolerate deep drawdowns.

In my view, the market still underestimates how durable the precious-metals bid could be if central-bank accumulation continues and real yields soften further. But it is just as important to recognize that not all upside is equal: gold offers protection, silver offers leverage. For most investors, the smarter move is to anchor the portfolio in gold and treat silver as the opportunistic kicker.