Coffee is getting more expensive in Greece, and consumers are responding by cutting back on cafe visits while shifting more of their spending to supermarkets, home espresso machines and capsules.
Greece Coffee Sales Rise as Cafe Visits Fall
That change matters because coffee is one of the last small-ticket purchases many households are reluctant to give up, making it a useful gauge of how inflation is reshaping daily spending. In Greece, where the sector also faces higher energy, rent, wages and a special consumption tax on coffee, the pressure is pushing both consumers and businesses to alter behavior rather than simply absorb the cost.
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Industry data show the shift is already visible. NielsenIQ says almost two-thirds of consumers plan to reduce restaurant outings, while 45.7% expect to visit cafes and coffee shops less often. At the same time, coffee remains a core part of the daily basket, especially at home, where consumers are trading the traditional Greek coffee for espresso, instant and capsule formats that better mimic the cafe experience.
The market is still expanding in value even as habits change. Coffee sales in organized retail and convenience stores rose to 501.4 million euros in 2025, up 13.7% from 2024, and climbed another 8.9% in the first seven months of 2026 versus the same period a year earlier. Over 2018-2025, the category posted average annual growth of 6.5%, driven by both higher volumes since the pandemic and price increases from raw materials and taxes.
The mix is changing fast. Greek coffee still leads in volume but has fallen to 44.4% of home consumption so far in 2026 from 51.3% in 2019. Instant coffee has recovered to 27.1%, while espresso beans, ground espresso and capsules have steadily gained share, helped by demand for convenience and for at-home products that recreate cafe-style drinks.
That tilt toward premium home consumption is also boosting equipment sales. Hot beverage machine sales reached 403,000 units in 2025, up 17.5% from 2023, and capsule espresso machines accounted for 43.2% of units sold in the year to July 2026. Ready-to-drink coffee is growing too, but more slowly, with 2025 sales up 6.3% to 16.8 million euros and only 0.6% growth in the first seven months of 2026 as volumes slipped.
For investors, the story points to a category that is resilient but changing shape: cafe traffic may soften, but at-home consumption, machine makers, retailers and premium brands can still gain. The next test will be whether further price hikes, including possible increases in cafe prices next year, accelerate the move away from out-of-home coffee or simply push more consumers into cheaper formats.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Supermarkets and convenience stores | ▲Higher coffee basket sales | ▼Less cafe spending |
| Capsule and espresso brands | ▲Premium at-home demand | ▼Traditional Greek coffee share |
| Cafe owners and restaurants | ▲Higher nominal prices | ▼Lower visit frequency |
| Consumers with tight budgets | ▲More home-brewing options | ▼Less out-of-home convenience |
