Lula narrows campaign circle as polls stall

According to Folha de S.Paulo, Lula has reduced the core campaign command to four people: communications minister Sidônio Palmeira, Institutional Relations minister Guilherme Boulos, PT chief Edinho Silva and longtime ally Paulo Okamotto. He is also weighing adding BNDES president Aloizio Mercadante, who would need to step aside from the development bank to join the campaign directly.

The reorganization comes as allies say Lula expected a clearer lift in his administration’s standing after election advertising began, but public opinion has barely moved. A Datafolha poll cited by the newspaper showed 42% rating the government as poor or terrible, while 31% called it excellent or good and 25% said it was regular.

The same survey put Lula at 38% in a first-round presidential matchup against 33% for Flávio Bolsonaro. In a hypothetical runoff, Lula led 46% to 44%, a margin inside the poll’s two-point error band, underscoring how little room the incumbent has for strategic mistakes.

Inside the campaign, the concerns go beyond polling. Allies cited delays in distributing campaign material, too few rallies and major events in the states, and leaks from expanded strategy meetings as reasons Lula is tightening control.

There is also friction over message discipline. The president has repeatedly ignored prepared scripts at public events, including at the party convention where he spoke for about 80 minutes after abandoning the written remarks. Allies also pointed to his launch event in São Bernardo do Campo, where he did not explicitly defend ending Brazil’s six-days-worked-for-one-day-off schedule, despite the issue being central to the campaign’s labor agenda and broadly popular with voters.

The political shift lands at a sensitive moment for markets. EWZ, the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, closed at $37.86 on Sept. 4, well above its 50-day moving average of $35.43 and 200-day moving average of $35.59, while its RSI reading of 82.7 points to stretched momentum. That combination suggests traders have already priced in a degree of optimism, leaving Brazilian assets exposed if the campaign turns more chaotic or if polling momentum stalls.

For now, Lula is moving to centralize decision-making and reduce leaks, with Mercadante seen as a possible reinforcement. The next test is whether a tighter campaign structure can stabilize the president’s message and revive support before the race hardens further.