Morawiecki split lifts Poland policy risk

The zloty is flashing caution rather than conviction. Adalytica’s Poland trade signals show sentiment at 89, or “Extreme Greed,” while awareness remains neutral at 37, suggesting strong positioning but not broad-based market attention. The signal comes after a sharp 30-day jump in sentiment, even as the one-day reading slipped, a pattern that often leaves the currency vulnerable to abrupt reversals if political risk rises.

Polish equities, meanwhile, have been firmer. The iShares MSCI Poland ETF, EPOL, closed at $41.24, up from $35.27 in early March and above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a sign the market has been willing to look through political noise for now. Its RSI reading of 65.0 points to stretched but still constructive momentum, while the MACD remains positive.

Still, the headline is a reminder that Poland’s political backdrop is far from settled. Growing anti-Ukrainian hostility, security concerns and disinformation pressure are adding to the strain on policymakers, and any new parliamentary split could complicate Tusk’s ability to navigate a crowded domestic agenda.

For investors, the key question is whether Morawiecki’s move becomes a one-off repositioning or the start of a broader realignment on the Polish right. The next test will be whether the new club draws lawmakers, hardens opposition to Tusk’s coalition and ultimately feeds into a more volatile policy and market environment.