Hakeem Baba-Ahmed says northern voters will not be bought off in the 2027 Nigerian election, sharpening the political risk around President Bola Tinubu’s re-election bid and the ruling APC’s campaign strategy in the country’s most populous region.
Nigeria 2027 election: north pushback on Tinubu
The Peoples Redemption Party national chairman said APC supporters were underestimating the north and warned that attempts to sway voters with cash would not erase grievances over Tinubu’s rule. He singled out key northern states including Zamfara, Kebbi, Sokoto, Katsina, Borno, Yobe, Kaduna, Plateau, Kogi and Nasarawa, saying the contest would test whether money can still overpower anger over economic hardship and political exclusion.
The comments matter because northern turnout and loyalty often decide Nigeria’s presidential race. If Baba-Ahmed’s warning reflects broader sentiment, the APC faces a tougher path to rebuilding support in a region that has historically delivered large vote totals but is showing signs of resistance ahead of a vote now being shaped as much by trust and dignity as by patronage.
For investors, the key issue is not the rhetoric itself but the risk of a more contentious campaign cycle in Africa’s largest economy. A bruising election could increase policy uncertainty around fiscal reform, security spending and governance continuity, while any perception of electoral manipulation would raise the odds of post-vote unrest and pressure on markets already sensitive to political stability.
Tinubu this week inaugurated the APC presidential campaign council in Abuja and said he would not attend every rally, framing governance as his priority. The president’s decision to put ministers and governors such as Nyesom Wike, Ademola Adeleke and Chukwuma Soludo on the council underscores how broad and tactical the coalition around his re-election effort is becoming.
Nigeria’s election machinery is also under scrutiny. The police are training 10,000 officers ahead of the January 2027 polls, while the electoral commission is testing AI-based verification systems to reduce result discrepancies. Against that backdrop, Baba-Ahmed’s warning is a reminder that the biggest battle may be over legitimacy as much as votes.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| APC/Tinubu campaign | ▲Broader coalition reach | ▼Higher resistance in the north |
| Northern opposition blocs | ▲Mobilization around grievance | ▼Vote-buying pressure |
| Nigerian voters | ▲More scrutiny of campaign tactics | ▼Risk of coercion and manipulation |
| Investors in Nigeria | ▲Potential policy continuity if vote is clean | ▼Higher political and market uncertainty |
