Nigeria Tinubu Boosts Military Spending Before Election

Tinubu last week appointed Major General Epiekole Agosi as the new commander in the northeast, the epicenter of extremism and kidnapping, after the previous commander served less than two years. The move was part of a broader restructuring that touched 15 senior generals, as the government tries to project control in the run-up to a vote expected to be dominated by anger over insecurity.

The administration is backing that political push with money. Nigeria's military spending rose 55% from a year earlier to $2.1 billion in 2025, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, and is expected to double this year. Tinubu also approved pay increases for soldiers last month and set plans in motion for the biggest expansion of the Nigerian army since the civil war in the late 1960s.

In July, he approved four new army divisions and a plan to recruit 28,000 more personnel by year-end. A law passed in June lets state governments create their own police forces, easing pressure on the federal police in forested areas that have become safe havens for militants.

The political stakes are high. Tinubu is seeking a second term under the All Progressives Congress and faces the same main rivals as in 2023: former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Anambra governor Peter Obi. Both opposition figures are betting that voters frustrated by violence and abductions will want a break from the status quo.

Abductions surged sharply over the past year. A new report from SBM Intelligence said more than 7,800 people were kidnapped in Nigeria between July 2025 and June 2026, up 66% from the previous year, with kidnappers collecting about $5.8 million in ransom, triple the prior period. Boko Haram accounted for 90% of that money, underscoring how entrenched the financing of violence has become.

For investors, the immediate question is whether the spending surge translates into real security gains or just a bigger fiscal bill. Higher defense outlays may support military suppliers and signal political urgency, but they also add to budget pressure in an economy where insecurity is already dragging on agriculture, transport and consumer demand.

Tinubu has also sought to defuse tensions with Washington by shifting U.S. rhetoric about alleged persecution of Christians into security cooperation. The U.S. deployed forces last year to assist counterterrorism operations, though most withdrew in July; a U.S. strike in the northeast in May killed a senior Islamic State figure, but mass kidnappings continued.

The market and political test now is simple: whether the latest overhaul can cut violence fast enough to sway voters before the election. If it fails, insecurity will remain a drain on growth, food supply and fiscal flexibility, and Tinubu's security bet could become a liability rather than an asset.