Saudi Arabia aluminium demand seen rising to 1.8M tons
Saudi Arabia’s aluminium market is headed for a sharp expansion as construction for mega-events and broader infrastructure spending push annual demand to as much as 1.8 million metric tons by 2030, Maaden says.
The forecast implies domestic consumption will rise from about 1 million tons now, nearly doubling within five to seven years and underscoring how the kingdom is turning itself from a resource exporter into a heavier industrial consumer. For investors, that points to stronger local pricing power, higher sales visibility for Maaden and a longer runway for downstream aluminium processors, even as global growth and trade conditions remain uneven.
Ahmad al-Alshaikh, Maaden’s executive vice president for aluminium, said demand is being driven by Saudi Arabia’s hosting of major expositions and the 2034 football World Cup, which will require 15 new stadiums. He gave the outlook on the sidelines of the Fastmarkets International Aluminium Conference in Budapest.
Maaden is already deeply tied to the domestic market. The company produces about 780,000 tons a year of primary aluminium and roughly 1 million tons of cast metal, with 85% of output sold at home.
That makes the demand outlook especially important for the company’s earnings mix and for regional aluminium suppliers that stand to benefit from a more locked-in local customer base. It also suggests the kingdom’s infrastructure buildout could absorb a growing share of regional supply, tightening availability for exporters and raising the strategic value of Saudi industrial assets.
Alshaikh said the brief U.S.-Israel war on Iran had only a limited effect on Maaden, adding that Gulf Cooperation Council countries worked together to cushion the impact. For investors, the bigger takeaway is that geopolitical shocks remain a risk, but the main growth story in Saudi aluminium is now domestic demand rather than supply disruption.
The next test is whether construction schedules and public spending stay on track as the kingdom ramps up preparations for 2030 projects and the 2034 World Cup.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Maaden | ▲Higher domestic sales | ▼Less surplus for export |
| Saudi builders | ▲More aluminium supply | ▼Higher local competition |
| Regional suppliers | ▲Demand spillover | ▼Tighter market availability |
| Exporters | ▲— | ▼Smaller Saudi export outlet |