Trump approval falls to 32% before midterms

The data also suggests turnout is running hot, with nearly 59 million early votes cast out of a projected 120 million, while a Supreme Court decision rejecting voter exclusion efforts removes one legal hurdle from the contest. That combination increases the chance of a high-stakes election outcome that markets may need to price quickly once results begin to clarify.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, which trades under DJT, reflect that uncertainty. The stock closed at $5.22 on Wednesday after peaking at $16.09 in December, and it now sits well below its 50-day moving average of $8.07 and 200-day moving average of $9.19, with an RSI reading of 21.3 that points to deeply oversold conditions under standard technical analysis.

Adalytica’s US Presidential Approval Sentiment gauge also shows the political mood deteriorating fast, with a neutral 43 reading after a 25-point one-day drop and a 57-point slide over the past week. That lines up with the market’s broader focus on whether the election becomes a referendum on Trump’s leadership and whether Democrats can convert discontent into legislative control.

For investors, the next catalyst is the election result itself, with the biggest risk being a policy reset on spending, regulation and tariffs if Democrats capitalize on the approval slump. A sharp market reaction is likely once control of Congress becomes clearer, especially for sectors sensitive to trade, energy and government policy.