Ukraine war hits August freight, exports and inflation

That combination matters because Ukraine’s economy is relying heavily on exports, external financing and stable logistics to keep growth going during wartime. When ports are blocked and steel output is disrupted, freight volumes fall, foreign-currency earnings shrink and pressure builds on businesses already facing labor shortages and higher costs.

The data also points to a mixed picture beneath the surface. Agricultural output got a boost from a record harvest of early crops, and the current account stayed close to balance thanks to international aid, even as the goods trade deficit widened in July on lower exports. Foreign reserves stood at $51.2 billion at the end of July, giving the central bank a cushion as it manages currency-market intervention.

The hryvnia was broadly stable in August, strengthening 0.3% against the dollar while weakening 1.2% versus the euro, and demand for domestic instruments held up after the NBU raised its key rate in July. Term deposits rose by 2.8 billion hryvnias and holdings of hryvnia-denominated government bonds increased by 1.7 billion hryvnias, suggesting households and investors still see value in local assets despite the war shock.

For investors, the key issue is that renewed inflation pressure may keep monetary conditions tighter for longer while war-related disruptions continue to weigh on industrial and export sectors. The NBU’s worsening 2026 inflation forecast to 10% and the ongoing dependence on aid and reserves mean the outlook will hinge on the intensity of attacks, port access and whether logistics can normalize.