Uzbekistan Trade With China Reaches $11.3 Billion

For Uzbekistan, deeper commerce with China can support access to machinery, consumer goods and financing for projects tied to transport, energy and industry. It also fits with President Xi Jinping’s signal that Beijing wants to launch a new “golden decade” in bilateral ties, and with Tashkent’s broader push to raise annual trade with China toward $30 billion. The numbers suggest that target is becoming more plausible, though it also implies growing dependence on Chinese imports and demand conditions.

For investors, the story cuts both ways. The bull case is that stronger trade with China points to sustained flows into Uzbek logistics, construction, industrial production and related services, while reinforcing the country’s role as a transit and manufacturing hub in Central Asia. The bear case is concentration risk: a heavier tilt toward China can leave Uzbekistan more exposed to Chinese growth slowdowns, yuan-linked pricing power and geopolitical pressure as major powers compete for influence in the region.

The trade data also fits a wider strategic pattern. Uzbekistan’s top partners now include Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Afghanistan, France, South Korea, the UAE, Turkmenistan and Hong Kong, but none comes close to China’s scale. That breadth shows Tashkent is still trying to balance external relationships, yet the center of gravity in its commerce is clearly shifting east.

The key question for the next year is whether the trade surge translates into higher value-added production inside Uzbekistan, or whether it remains dominated by imports. If Tashkent can convert the relationship into more domestic industry, export capacity and infrastructure buildout, the China-Uzbekistan corridor could become a growth engine. If not, the gains will remain unevenly distributed, with the biggest beneficiaries on the Chinese supply side and in sectors tied to re-exports and transit.