Vietnam ADB raises 2026 growth forecast to 7.8%

ADB also raised its 2027 forecast from 7% and warned that the upside comes with mounting macro risks. Inflation is expected at 4.3% in 2026 and 4% in 2027, as demand pressures persist and energy and import costs rise, while rapid credit growth could increase financial-system vulnerabilities and make it harder for smaller companies to access financing.

For investors, the revision reinforces Vietnam’s appeal as a growth market, but it also signals that returns may come with more policy and currency risk. Stronger growth can support industrial names, banks and consumer plays tied to domestic demand, but higher inflation and tighter credit conditions raise the odds of more cautious monetary management and pressure on borrowing costs.

ADB country director Shantanu Chakraborty said Vietnam’s first-half performance showed “strong resilience” and the potential for sustained growth, but urged careful macroeconomic management, faster structural reform and a sharper focus on productivity. Chief economist Bui Minh Giap said the challenge is to keep growth high while improving its quality through more effective public investment, deeper capital markets, a stronger banking system and better links between domestic firms and foreign investors.

The next test is whether Vietnam can keep investment momentum intact without stoking inflation or financial stress, with the quality and pace of public spending, external uncertainty and domestic credit risks likely to shape the outlook into 2027.