Consumer Confidence Recession Sentiment: 29 (Pessimistic) · as of
History · 3 years
Overview · Outlook index · updated daily
About the Consumer Confidence Recession Sentiment
Machine-learning indicator measuring consumer confidence dynamics across digital discussions and macro commentary, capturing willingness to spend and forward-looking household sentiment.
Macro sentiment indicators capture the aggregate narrative bias across economic data releases, not just individual prints. A rising Awareness score alongside deteriorating Sentiment is a classic recession-fear signal. These indicators are best used to track how quickly markets are repricing macro risk, rather than to predict the data itself.
Key drivers
- PMI composite readings (manufacturing + services)
- Consumer confidence surveys (Conference Board, UoM)
- Retail sales and personal spending data
- Leading economic indicators (LEI)
- Labor market health (jobless claims, JOLTS)
Reading the Outlook scale
- 0-20Deeply PessimisticCoverage points to contraction or recession.
- 21-40Now · 29PessimisticOutlook weakening; downside risks lead.
- 41-60NeutralMixed outlook; no clear trend.
- 61-80OptimisticOutlook improving; growth signals lead.
- 81-100Highly OptimisticStrong growth narrative; watch for overheating.
How to use this index
- Use the Outlook score to gauge the prevailing narrative bias for Consumer Confidence at a glance.
- The Awareness score flags unusual spikes in coverage - early-warning signals that often precede price moves.
- Extreme readings (0-20 or 81-100) historically mark periods of heightened volatility and potential reversals.
- Compare across related topics to find cross-asset divergences and correlation breakdowns.
- Pro subscribers can view 3 years of history to calibrate thresholds against past market regimes.
This index is frequently referenced alongside consumer confidence sentiment, recession risk, ai consumer sentiment, internet economic confidence, alternative data macro - helping traders and analysts track Consumer Confidence outlook shifts in real time.
Latest news
Consumer Confidence in the news
The headlines feeding this index, newest first.
Australia consumer confidence drops to recession lows
Australia’s consumers are buckling under the fastest tightening in years, with confidence sinking to levels last seen in a deep recession and economists warning households will face “recession-like” conditions next year even if the broader economy avoids an outright downturn.
Read moreMexico Consumer Confidence Falls to 45 in September
Mexico’s consumer confidence slipped to 45 points in September, reinforcing signs that households are growing more guarded just as Latin America’s second-largest economy leans on domestic demand to offset a softer external backdrop.
Read moreConsumer confidence weakens pricing power for retailers
Consumer confidence is becoming one of the most important forces in the market because it now determines not just what people buy, but how much pricing power businesses can actually hold onto. When households feel uncertain, they trade down, delay purchases and demand more proof that a premium price is worth paying.
Read moreLuxury Footwear Gains as Handbag Demand Slows
Luxury footwear is emerging as a brighter profit pool than handbags as consumers trade down from $5,000-plus bags into statement shoes that cost less than half as much, giving brands a cheaper way to sell novelty, drive traffic and protect margins.
Read moreAustralia consumer confidence falls after RBA hike
Australian consumer confidence fell sharply after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted borrowing costs to a 15-year high and signaled it may tighten again, underscoring the risk that higher rates are starting to choke household spending.
Read moreHershey faces low-sugar candy competition
HallPass is trying to reopen a slice of the candy market that big confectioners have struggled to defend: lapsed consumers who still want the taste and ritual of chocolate, but with fewer calories and less sugar.
Read moreJapan Tax Cut Debate Hits Bonds and Yen
Japan’s new prime minister is trying to square a politically popular tax cut with a financial market that still wants proof Tokyo can pay for it.
Read moreAlphabet, Meta Gain From TV Ad Shift
Capturing consumer attention has become so difficult that advertisers are now paying less for traditional TV and far more for streaming, creators and data-driven ad buys — a shift that is reshaping the economics of media and the next leg of digital ad growth.
Read moreTikTok Shop Singapore Livestream Sales Face Fraud Concerns
Livestream shopping is racing into the mainstream in Singapore, and the fastest-growing part of the business is now colliding with rising concerns over fraud, misleading claims and hard-to-prove disputes that could force new consumer safeguards.
Read moreNorwegian Consumer Council ad targets planned obsolescence
The Norwegian Consumer Council’s viral ad has turned planned obsolescence into a mainstream consumer-rights issue, putting pressure on electronics makers and retailers over products designed to fail or become outdated faster than customers expect.
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Methodology
How the index is built
Data sources, scoring and update cadence, in plain terms.
What is the Consumer Confidence index?
Machine-learning indicator measuring consumer confidence dynamics across digital discussions and macro commentary, capturing willingness to spend and forward-looking household sentiment.
How is the Consumer Confidence index calculated?
The Consumer Confidence index is derived from AI-powered NLP analysis of thousands of online news sources, blogs, and financial commentary. Sentiment scores range from 0 (Deeply Pessimistic) to 100 (Highly Optimistic), where 50 represents neutral conditions. Awareness scores capture the volume and breadth of coverage for this topic across the media landscape.
How often is the Consumer Confidence index updated?
The underlying data pipeline runs once per day. However, the gauge and score displayed on this page reflect a processed snapshot that may be 3–24 hours behind real-time, depending on the topic's update cadence and how quickly new data clears the processing pipeline. The exact timestamp of the data shown is visible in the gauge footer - hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why does the gauge show data from a few hours ago?
The gauge reflects a processed data snapshot, not a live feed. Depending on the topic, displayed values can be 3–24 hours behind real-time - fast-moving topics (crypto, equities) update more frequently, while slower-cycle topics (macro, real estate, geopolitics) may have a longer lag. The precise data timestamp is always visible in the gauge footer: hover the info icon to see it in your local time.
Why use sentiment analysis?
Sentiment uses natural language processing to analyze and quantify investors' opinions, which is different from traditional indicators like volatility (VIX), volume, or price trends. This gives you an edge over others who rely solely on price-based data.
How to interpret the figures?
The gauges show the latest indicator percentiles for the last two quarters. Values above 50 mean an upward trend, while below 50 means a downward trend. A reading above 70% signals greed, and below 30% signals fear. When price and sentiment trends diverge, it's a strong sign the trend will continue.
What does awareness represent?
Besides sentiment, we also provide a measurement of awareness - an indicator of media activity expressed as a ratio of topic-dedicated data compared to the total. Values over 50 indicate an increasing media trend and growing investors' interest; less than 50 signals decreasing attention.
What is sentiment analysis and why measure it?
Sentiment analysis is a way to determine whether a piece of text is positive, negative, or neutral. It helps understand how people feel about a topic or product, which is very important for investment, revenue management, and gauging public opinion. It adds important data points to the decision process and is valuable input for many statistical and AI models.
What are some of the key data characteristics?
Raw signals are gathered from proprietary sources covering over 50,000 outlets and ingested every 15 minutes. Processed gauge readings are derived from these signals but are displayed with a delay of 3–24 hours depending on the topic - the exact data timestamp is always shown in the gauge footer. The platform includes 5 years of history, supports 72 languages, and processes over 1 million unique entries daily. Adalytica maintains over 99.5% uptime across all products and data services.
Who benefits the most from the sentiment data?
The products are widely used across various industries, including finance, real estate, cryptocurrency, commodities, and government. They provide tailored insights for tasks like tracking voter sentiment, optimizing investment strategies, or monitoring brand perception. We offer products that are tailored for both beginners and advanced data professionals.