Argentina’s August inflation is expected to cool sharply from July, with private consultancies projecting monthly gains between 1.4% and 1.7% as food price increases ease, winter-related spending fades and regulated housing costs weigh less on the index.
Argentina August Inflation Seen Slowing to 1.4%-1.7%
The forecasts point to one of the best inflation readings of the year and would mark a notable slowdown from July’s 2.1% rise in consumer prices. That matters because a softer print would reinforce the view that the disinflation trend is back on track after a stretch of volatility driven by seasonality and earlier pass-through from the peso.
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Eco Go sees inflation at 1.5%, Analytica at 1.7% and C&T Asesores at 1.6%. Fundación Libertad y Progreso is slightly more optimistic at 1.4%, saying its nowcast points to a renewed deceleration after the lagged effects of May and June price pressures faded.
The biggest driver appears to be food. Libertad y Progreso said food and non-alcoholic beverages slowed to 1.4% in August from 2.9% in July, although late-month increases in meat, fruit and fish showed the category remains uneven. That is important for households because food carries heavy weight in Argentina’s cost of living and tends to shape near-term expectations.
Housing also helped contain the index. Utilities such as electricity, gas and water continued to rise, but weaker rental prices reduced the category’s contribution versus the prior month. The end of the winter holiday season also stripped out a temporary source of price pressure from recreation and tourism.
For investors, a softer August reading would support local assets by keeping alive the case for further disinflation and potentially more policy flexibility over time. It would also matter for real wages, consumer spending and the government’s broader attempt to restore price stability after years of entrenched inflation.
C&T said early September signs suggest inflation may remain near August levels, though clothing could see added seasonal pressure as the new season begins. Even so, the consultancies say the underlying trend still points lower in the months ahead.
| Entity | Gains | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Argentine consumers | ▲lower living costs | ▼price pressure on budgets |
| Government/economic policymakers | ▲disinflation narrative | ▼pressure if inflation reaccelerates |
| Local bonds and peso assets | ▲stronger policy credibility | ▼volatility from upside surprises |
| Food and seasonal retailers | ▲demand normalization | ▼pricing power from inflation spikes |
