Argentina REM cuts growth outlook, lifts inflation view

Even with that late-year pickup, the survey now pegs full-year 2026 growth at just 1.5%, down 0.6 points from the previous poll. For investors, that combination of weaker activity and stubborn price pressures is a warning that Argentina’s recovery remains fragile and that policy room is still limited.

Inflation expectations remain the biggest market issue. The REM now sees consumer prices rising 1.9% in September, up 0.1 point from the prior survey and in line with the Top 10 forecasters, while core inflation is seen at 1.8%. For December 2026, the market expects year-on-year inflation of 30.0%, with core inflation ending the year at 28.0%.

The path beyond this year also stays elevated by regional standards. Analysts project inflation of 21.2% for 2027 and 15.0% for 2028, a sign the disinflation process is expected to continue but not collapse quickly enough to remove macro risk from Argentine assets.

The peso outlook is also shifting. The median forecast puts the exchange rate at 1,545 per dollar in October, 20 pesos stronger than in the previous REM, and at 1,614 by December 2026. That implies an 11.5% move over the year, suggesting the market expects only a controlled pace of depreciation rather than a sharp adjustment.

For rates, the consensus sees the TAMAR wholesale lending rate at 23.56% annualized in October and 23.50% by December 2026, indicating little near-term easing. That matters for borrowers, banks and investors alike because high real rates can help anchor prices, but they also keep a lid on credit demand and private-sector activity.

The report leaves the central bank with a familiar trade-off: slow the inflation momentum without deepening the downturn. That balance will keep the REM, the peso and policy rates in focus through the final quarter, especially if activity remains weak and inflation proves slower to retreat than officials want.